Cap Space Isn’t Just For Free Agents
The Chicago Bulls enter the 2018 NBA off-season coming off a 27–55 record. This was clearly to be expected after the 2017 off-season trade of franchise star Jimmy Butler. The Bulls went into the 2017–18 season expecting to be bad. Bad means many things, but mainly it means that the current roster needs more talent.
There are many ways teams can acquire talent in the NBA, but of course one of the main way teams like to acquire talent is through free agency. To be active in free agency, you want cap flexibility. Cap flexibility allows you too outbid teams and make your situation more appealing from a financial perspective. As far as cap space is concerned, the Bulls have plenty of flexibility going into the 2018 off-season.
The Bulls technically are over the cap as of right now, but have the ability to get under significantly.
As of right now the Bulls have a team salary figure of $116,720,776 (including both 1st round pick salaries, exceptions, cap holds), and with a projected 2018–19 salary cap figure $101,000,000, that leaves the Bulls over the salary cap. But the flexibility to lower that team salary number is there. Exceptions always count toward your team salary if without them you are under the salary cap. Chicago has $25,849,818 worth of exceptions counting toward team salary.
This includes both their mid-level exception (MLE), bi-annual exception and two traded player exceptions. The Bulls can renounce those players’ rights, bringing their team salary to $90,009,065. This would then give them $10,990,335 in space. The Bulls also have $26,759,730 in cap holds and non-guaranteed salary. It’s assumed Zach Lavine’s cap hold ($9,606,654) and David Nwaba’s cap hold($1,669,698) will remain on the books until they are signed to new contracts. But Noah Vonleh and Ryan Arcidiacono’s holds could easily be renounced, as well as Paul Ziper’s and Sean Kilpatrick’s non-guaranteed salary. Doing that gives the Bulls about $25 million in cap space for the upcoming off-season.
To put the above $25 million in perspective, that is enough space to offer a restricted free agent a max contract this off-season. But Paxson has made it clear the Bulls aren’t expected to be big players in this upcoming free agency period.
Chicago is not looking to tie down the books with long term contracts this early in the rebuild. They see the 2019 or 2020 off-seasons as their best chances to add high-level talent. Bulls Vice President of Basketball Operations John Paxson has said that next season’s success will rely on player development over spending money in free agency. All this makes sense. The Bulls aren’t not necessarily appealing to the top free agents yet. And the next tier of free agents are arguably good, but not the type of players the Bulls want to commit a lot of money too at this point. But the Bulls cap space can be used in another way, and that is in beneficial trades.
The 2018 off-season will definitely highlight a lot of teams misused cap space the last few years. The salary cap spiked the last few off-seasons, which allowed teams more flexibility to spend on free agents. But now a lot of those teams are suffering from this. Many of these franchises are over the cap and pushed up against the luxury tax, and will be looking for teams with cap space to take on certain contracts.
A great example of this can be found last off-season when the Los Angeles Clippers traded Jamal Crawford to Atlanta. The Hawks helped the Clippers out and in exchange, the Clippers sent Atlanta a 2018 1st round pick (30th overall in 2018). The Hawks had cap flexibility, and they use it to obtain an additional 1st round pick. This off-season could see similar trades. With so many teams in need of serious salary-cap relief, a team like the Bulls could be one of the teams that benefits from this. Let’s look at some teams who could use Chicago’s help, and what are some of the possible trades that could happen.
Brooklyn Nets:
Brooklyn is a team that will have some cap space this off-season, about $11 million per my projections. It’s unclear what direction Brooklyn is trying to go, but if Brooklyn wants to use their cap space, one direction they might look to go is trading away the expiring contract of guard Jeremy Lin. With D’Angelo Russell and the emergence of Most Improved Player finalist Spencer Dinwiddie, Lin and his $12.5 million salary is expendable.
Trading Lin alone can get them close to one max slot for a restricted free agent. This would allow them to go after young players like Jabari Parker and Aaron Gordon if they want. Brooklyn doesn’t have much to attach to Lin to make it interesting for the Bulls. I doubt they would offer any future 1st rounder (because….y’know) along with any of their young talent. A 2nd round pick isn’t valuable enough to take on Lin if you are the Bulls, unless Paxson believes Lin could really help next season. He has been healthy most of his career but the last two seasons have been rough. Lin missed all of last season and only played in 36 games the previous season. The one asset Brooklyn does have is the 29th pick in the 2018 NBA draft which they obtained in the DeMarre Carroll salary dump last off-season.
Bulls trade: Jerian Grant, future 2nd
Nets Trade: 29th overall pick in 2018 draft, Jeremy Lin
I would consider that if I was Chicago, but I’m not sure Brooklyn is at all interested in moving that pick. But if Brooklyn has plans to use cap space, ths is a move that could happen. More unlikely is Brooklyn throwing in that pick. They will look to find a team who values Lin for next season, and perhaps only move a future 2nd round pick. Or perhaps just roll over their cap space into 2019 and not use much in 2018 and just hold on to Lin for now, the most likely scenario.
Charlotte Hornets:
Charlotte is a team who has missed the playoffs two seasons in a row. Their best player, Kemba Walker, can leave in 2019. But most importantly Charlotte is a team pushed up against the tax. They need to improve, but doing so will put them in a tough financial situation. The Hornets have plenty of bad contracts on their books and some assets that could help them move some of those contracts.
Contracts like Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller could looked to be moved, possibly even Jeremy Lamb. Both Williams and Zeller potentially hurt the Bulls future space, as Williams has a player option for 2019–20 worth $15 million and Zeller is signed through the 2020–21 season at about $14 million a season. Perhaps if Bulls can include Cristiano Felicio in a trade, then taking on either contract isn’t as bad as the difference between Felicio’s contract. The difference is only about $6–7 million more.
Again, it is very much not clear what Charlotte wants to do this off-season. But if they want to spend money and improve, moving such contracts is almost necessary to avoid the luxury tax. Here are some trade examples.
Chicago Trades: Cameron Payne
Charlotte Trades: Cody Zeller or Marvin Williams, 2018 11th overall pick
or
Chicago Trades: Crisitiano Felicio, 2018 22nd overall pick
Charlotte Trades: Cody Zeller or Marvin Williams, 2018 11th overall pick
or
Chicago Trades: Cameron Payne, 2018 22nd overall pick
Charlotte Trades: Jeremy Lamb, 2018 11th overall pick
Potentially losing Walker could be enough pressure for them to consider moving down in the draft if it pushes them far enough from the tax line. This would allow them to use their mid-level exception fully, and not go into tax. But even then would it be worth it? Time will tell how much pressure Charlotte management is feeling this off-season.
Denver Nuggets:
Denver is another team who will likely be pushed up against the tax, especially if they want to resign both Will Barton and franchise cornerstone Nikola Jokic. Jokic has a team option worth $1.6 million, but is only eligible for restricted free agency this off-season. Accepting that option will make Jokic unrestricted in 2019, a risk Denver should not take. They should decline his option, make Jokic restricted, and work on a new contract or match any contract. Of course doing this will add on about $25 million in team salary, which already can push the Nuggets into tax.
Then there is still the idea of resigning Barton. Resigning both he and Jokic will make Denver really expensive, and this isn’t even a guaranteed playoff team. That’s where moving expiring contracts like Kenneth Faried, (DePaul’s very own!) Wilson Chandler or Darrell Arthur can be really helpful in certainb roles. Both Chandler and Arthur have player options for the upcoming season, and both are projected to accept those options. Denver has the 14th pick in the draft, which is the main asset I want if I am the Bulls.
Bulls trade: 2018 22nd overall pick
Denver trades: 2018 13th overall pick, Kenneth Faried
If Denver wants to keep both Jokic and Barton and not end up $15–20 million over the tax, then a move like this is necessary.
These are just 3 examples of how Bulls can use their cap flexibility and acquire additional assets to help with the rebuild. There are other teams who could use cap-relief as well. These trade ideas are just there to give you an idea of what certain teams could offer and how these packages would benefit the Bulls.
A 2018 NBA draft asset is what should be most targeted, not necessarily the players or salaries coming back. Players like Lin and Chandler could be useful in one-year roles with Chicago. But if the Bulls are going to use significant cap space to do anything this off-season, using it to acquire unwanted salaries with draft picks attached might be the most ideal way to use space this off-season compared to over-spending on players who aren’t good enough to push Chicago into contention right now.
